China's steel prices rebound in the first half of September

Near the weekend, the festive atmosphere in the steel market is getting stronger. Although the price of steel futures has risen again under the positive boost of the news, steel mills have reported some food operations, and transactions in some hot spots are better, but most areas have performed well., There has been no particularly big change for the time being. Some merchants have already started their holidays ahead of schedule, and terminal stocking is nearing the end.
 

As of September 13, 2019, the steel composite price index reached 147.5 points, up 0.42 percent from the same period last week and 0.29 percent from the same period last month; the long wood price index reached 158.6 points, up 0.86 percent from the same period last week and 1.19 percent from the same period last month; the plate price index reached 134.9 points, up 0.2 percent from the same period last weekend and down 0.19 percent from the same period last month.

Construction Steel

In terms of specific spot prices, according to monitoring data, as of September 13, the average price of Φ25mm grade 3 rebar in 10 key cities in China was 3807 yuan, up 30 yuan from last Friday and 56 yuan from the same period last month. As of September 12, the average price of Φ6.5mm and HPB300 high-speed lines in 10 key cities in China was 4204 yuan, up 24 yuan from last Friday and 12 yuan from the same period last month.

Plate

In terms of hot-rolled coil prices, monitoring data show that as of September 12, the average price of 5.5mm hot-rolled coil in 10 key cities in China was 3730 yuan, up 4 yuan from last Friday and down 8 yuan from the same period last month.

In terms of cold-rolled coil prices, as of September 12, the average price of 1.0mm cold-rolled coils in 10 key cities in China was 4302 yuan, an increase of 18 yuan from last Friday and 16 yuan from the same period last month.
 

In terms of medium and heavy plate prices, as of September 12, the price of 20mm medium plate in 10 key cities in China was 3800 yuan, down 1 yuan from last Friday and 51 yuan from the same period last month.

Next week domestic steel price trend forecast

At the beginning of September, the domestic steel market ushered in a good start. Is there still a wave of rising steel prices after the Mid-Autumn Festival?

Judging from the recent market trend, the policy market leads to occupy a large factor. On Friday evening, the central bank announced a downgrade and the release of 900 billion funds, triggering risk appetite in the capital markets and a very eye-catching performance in the futures market. In addition, macro data also show that support from the policy level is strengthening, after experiencing a more-than-expected decline in new credit facilities in July, the financial data in August showed a pick-up. New RMB loans in August were 1.21 trillion yuan, an increase of 150 billion yuan from the previous month and 66.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year; the increase in social financing was 1.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 970 billion yuan from the previous year, 37.6 billion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of August, the growth rate of broad money (M2) was 0.1 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month to 8.2, driven by the rebound of new RMB loans on a month on month basis.

At the same time, the regulatory authorities once again said that they did not control the loan increment of real estate enterprises, mainly because in the past, banks and real estate enterprises colluded to illegally bypass "blood transfusion" real estate through off balance sheet funds. The regulatory authorities mainly suppressed these assets and corrected the interpretation of real estate in the early stage market to a certain extent. From the perspective of industrial demand, a number of major projects have been started in many places in recent half a month. Major projects in Guizhou, Sichuan, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Fujian and other places have been launched, involving a total investment of more than one trillion yuan. From the information disclosed in various places, the local concentrated construction projects are mostly industrial projects and infrastructure projects, indicating that the resilience and momentum from the end demand still exists.

As the festival approaches, the news reappears positive, and China and the United States send friendly signals to each other. First, the Tariff Commission of the State Council announced the first exclusion list of the first batch of goods subject to tariffs on the United States and Canada, and the first batch of goods subject to tariffs on the United States and Canada. The first exclusion of some goods will be implemented from September 17, 2019. The next day (September 12) Trump announced on Twitter that he would postpone the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods! The decision to impose a high tariff of $250 billion was postponed until October 15. The original tariff on this batch of goods will be raised from 25% to 30% from October 1. The Chinese side welcomes this. It is reported that Chinese companies have begun to purchase U.S. agricultural products for inquiry, and the U.S. focuses on soybeans and pork in this range.

The above was interpreted by the market as a positive, pushing up the speculative enthusiasm of the pre-holiday capital market, the global risk assets rose rapidly, of which the RMB rose nearly two hundred points in a straight line. The black department started the pre-holiday carnival, iron ore soared nearly 4%, a 5-week high, the turnover reached 2.37 million hands. The period snail quickly pulled up to 3549 yuan, and the hot roll futures soared to 3568 yuan again! Transaction position volume. At the same time, the capital flow accelerated across the board, iron ore strong gold nearly 2.8 billion yuan!

In addition, the industrial end of the steel inventory fell sharply, steel mills and spot inventory are obvious to the stock market, indicating that the market for inventory digestion is not as weak as expected, which is also the main driving force to stimulate the market to do more enthusiasm before the festival.

But don't be too optimistic. From the perspective of the cause of the rise in steel prices, it is the result of the resonance of news and policy. Therefore, it is necessary to specifically observe whether there is any new favorable support in the later stage, such as monetary policy, domestic demand and the latest progress of Sino-US trade. Wait, if the good exists, the price still has the opportunity to rise. On the other hand, after the good digestion and the new good appeared empty window, steel prices there is a stage of high down the risk.
 

In addition, due to the pre-holiday steel prices pulled up too fast, the upward route is relatively smooth, the steel market itself also has the need to adjust, it is only a matter of time. Especially in the profit recovery, late production remains high, the industrial side of the risk has not been fully lifted. After the rise in steel prices, the acceptance of the terminal needs to be observed, and the continued rise also requires a two-way drive on the supply and demand side.

Picked to steel net