Domestic steel prices rose sharply in May.

The environmental production restriction in March, the carbon neutrality in April and the reduction in production that has been emphasized this year, and the expectation of production reduction is too strong, which is one of the main reasons for the continuous increase in market enthusiasm. The main force of rebar increased from more than 700,000 at the beginning of April to more than 160 million before the 5.1 festival. the move of capital to enter the market is very obvious. how is it possible for capital to be quiet and not tossing about?

Although as the first full week after the holiday, the holiday accumulated demand accelerated release. But sentiment has a very big impact on the short-term market. Every day is a high-pitched state, all kinds of bullish jokes, full of friends, streets and alleys. From the 5000 to the 6000, from the 6000 to the 7000, and even to the 10000 to review the US hot rolls.

The market has cooled down in recent days, with the three-day period of last Thursday, Friday and Saturday now falling by 400-700 yuan. There were all kinds of tumbling sounds again. High fever, confusion, panic, and loss to nearly collapse of despair and numbness ......, too much, began the spot followed the futures, and then the futures followed the spot. For a while, the mine was strong and the steel was weak, for a while, the steel was strong and the mine was weak, and then both soared and fell sharply. How can this market be tolerated. Emotional by the one-day market up and down, unlimited amplification. It may eventually affect the misjudgment of the market and lead to losses. Therefore, the proper cooling of the market is also conducive to the healthy development of the market.

Iron ore ten times the profit, so that domestic steel enterprises have no way to go, the upstream price rise sharply, so that the downstream has no way to go. However, the sharp rise in prices has aroused the attention of the policy level, and steel enterprises in Tangshan and Shanghai have been interviewed one after another, demanding to stabilize prices, standardize price behavior, prevent the risk of price violations, and maintain a good price order. This led to a cooling of speculative demand and a correction in steel prices. Price increases are not terrible, they are afraid of crazy growth, disorderly rhythm and deformity. Looking back on the ups and downs of the steel industry in recent years, the high profit time is not very long, most of the time is low profit space. Profit margins have improved thanks to supply-side reforms. The industry has a standard, good side.

But the current state of high fever is biased. The national economy is a game of chess, not while hot and cold. The economy needs coordinated development, not abnormal development. For example, the prices of some raw materials for home appliances have risen by nearly 70%, and materials such as copper, aluminum, plastics, and steel account for about 70% of the cost, which are all rising and unbearable. Some kitchen and electricity enterprises have adjusted their prices five times and cannot adjust them. Ovie cloud network data show that this year, the home appliance market prices of various categories have risen. April monitoring data, color TV offline average price growth of 31.3 percent year-on-year, washing machine industry as a whole offline average price growth of 5.5 percent year-on-year, air conditioning offline overall average price growth of 7.9 percent year-on-year. In the end, it is still in the hands of the common people. Has the income of the common people increased? How much has the income increased? In the end of the skyrocketing, there must be some people who take over the offer. If they can't take it, there must be some problems. Recently, CSSC and CSSC exchanged views on the current situation and later trends of the steel and ship market, the current situation and later trends of the market, the current procurement mode of ship plates, and the convergence of supply and demand between upstream and downstream. At this point in time, it is really necessary to establish more upstream and downstream cooperation methods to deal with the risk of price fluctuation.

How do you see the ups and downs of the market?

The steel market has reached this level, and it has indeed exposed many problems. Recently, I have encountered some obstacles in my communication with some steel friends. Everyone knows and understands the ups and downs of the market differently. Take this market as an example, rebar and hot coil fell from 6200 yuan and 6700 yuan to 4900 yuan and 5300 yuan, which is indeed a big drop. Moreover, the rhythm of steel entering May is 200-300 points in a single day, which is very common. However, if the market started from 3200-3500 yuan at the end of October last year and rose by more than 3000 yuan in more than seven months to May, this pullback would not be a big drop. So in the end, it's meaningless to talk about ups and downs in different cycles.

If the market is down, is it going to fall sharply? If the market is going to rise, do you think it is going to rise sharply? Is it still down? Is it still up? How to define the so-called rise and fall? What about the big rise and the big fall? If you see the rise today, will the market still rise?

Spot only focuses on how tomorrow's price is better than today's, but we can't make the cycle so short if we recognize the market and study the market. Whether it goes up or down, it really varies from person to person. Having said that, it has been more than 7 months since the market continued to rise last year, and there is no obvious sharp drop in the middle. If there is a callback this time, it is normal for a callback of 1-2 months. Don't always look forward to new highs. If it is too high, the policy will definitely intervene. Can we reach new highs in the medium and long term? That depends on the transformation of the conditions of all parties.